Sloop's own model — team ratings & recent form, priced independently of the bookmaker. The same expected goals price every market, and the value edges below are where it disagrees with the Singapore Pools line (shown as the benchmark).
Where the independent fair odds beat the offered price on the goals family— over/under, both-teams-to-score, odd/even (HT & FT). This is the model's proven edge (positive closing-line value), so these are the bets it stakes.
The same model on markets without a proven edge — the result/supremacy family (1X2, handicaps, half-time result), where a market-blind Elo loses to the sharp line, plus newer exotic markets (which half, first scorer) still being evaluated. All are tracked for CLV but never bet until they earn it.
What the Singapore Pools closing line implies, with the bookmaker's margin removed — the benchmark to compare Sloop's prediction against. Locked to the closing line; it doesn't move with the live score.
Aruba1
Antigua and Barbuda0
