Every edge is logged as a virtual bet at the line shown — placed within ~3 days of kickoff, when the price is realistic — and staked with correlation-aware (joint) quarter-Kelly off a $1000bankroll, sizing a match's bets together (capped per match) so correlated edges don't stack. Then settled against the real result. Each line runs on its own bankroll so it can be validated separately — including a non-staked shadowline that only watches the Elo's weaker result markets for closing-line value. Tap a card to dig in.
The market-calibrated model on a competition that is still being validated. Priced and CLV-tracked exactly like the staked Value line, but never staked or recommended — a shadow line until this competition's closing-line value proves the edge is real.
How bad the worst losing run got, and how long it took to climb out — the betting analogue of a trading drawdown report.
| Market | Bets | Won | Staked | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halftime-Fulltime | 7 | 1 | $9.50 | +$0.40 | +4.2% | -4.0% |
| Pick The Score | 1 | 0 | $1.10 | -$1.10 | -100.0% | +0.0% |
| Total | 8 | 1 | $10.60 | -$0.70 | -6.6% | -3.5% |
| Status | Selection | Odds | CLV | Stake | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lost | Stuttgart - Stuttgart Halftime-Fulltime | 17.00 | -10.5% | $1.00 | -$1.00 |
