Every edge is logged as a virtual bet at the line shown — placed within ~3 days of kickoff, when the price is realistic — and staked with correlation-aware (joint) quarter-Kelly off a $1000bankroll, sizing a match's bets together (capped per match) so correlated edges don't stack. Then settled against the real result. Each line runs on its own bankroll so it can be validated separately — including a non-staked shadowline that only watches the Elo's weaker result markets for closing-line value. Tap a card to dig in.
The market-calibrated model on a competition that is still being validated. Priced and CLV-tracked exactly like the staked Value line, but never staked or recommended — a shadow line until this competition's closing-line value proves the edge is real.
How bad the worst losing run got, and how long it took to climb out — the betting analogue of a trading drawdown report.
| Market | Bets | Won | Staked | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2 Goal | 1 | 1 | $1.80 | +$9.00 | +500.0% | — |
| Halftime-Fulltime | 10 | 1 | $25.90 | -$9.40 | -36.3% | +6.3% |
| Asian Handicap | 1 | 0 | $18.30 | -$18.30 | -100.0% | +2.8% |
| Total | 12 | 2 | $46.00 | -$18.70 | -40.7% | +6.0% |
| Status | Selection | Odds | CLV | Stake | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lost | Coventry - Coventry Halftime-Fulltime | 35.00 | +40.0% | $2.10 | -$2.10 |
| lost | Coventry +2 Asian Handicap | 1.87 | +2.8% | $18.30 | -$18.30 |
