Every edge is logged as a virtual bet at the line shown — placed within ~3 days of kickoff, when the price is realistic — and staked with correlation-aware (joint) quarter-Kelly off a $1000bankroll, sizing a match's bets together (capped per match) so correlated edges don't stack. Then settled against the real result. Each line runs on its own bankroll so it can be validated separately — including a non-staked shadowline that only watches the Elo's weaker result markets for closing-line value. Tap a card to dig in.
The market-calibrated model on a competition that is still being validated. Priced and CLV-tracked exactly like the staked Value line, but never staked or recommended — a shadow line until this competition's closing-line value proves the edge is real.
Reconstructed from odds we captured at the time, but picked by a model that has since seen these results. Shown separately because it is a backtest, not a track record — the two can't be added together.
How bad the worst losing run got, and how long it took to climb out — the betting analogue of a trading drawdown report.
| Market | Bets | Won | Staked | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2 Goal | 2 | 1 | $13.40 | +$7.13 | +53.2% | +22.5% |
| Asian Handicap | 2 | 1 | $25.60 | +$1.97 | +7.7% | +0.0% |
| Halftime-Fulltime | 7 | 0 | $13.40 | -$13.40 | -100.0% | +14.5% |
| Total | 11 | 2 | $52.40 | -$4.30 | -8.2% | +14.7% |
| Status | Selection | Odds | CLV | Stake | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lost | Malaga - Malaga Halftime-Fulltime | 21.00 | +23.5% | $3.70 | -$3.70 |
