Every edge is logged as a virtual bet at the line shown — placed within ~3 days of kickoff, when the price is realistic — and staked with correlation-aware (joint) quarter-Kelly off a $1000bankroll, sizing a match's bets together (capped per match) so correlated edges don't stack. Then settled against the real result. Each line runs on its own bankroll so it can be validated separately — including a non-staked shadowline that only watches the Elo's weaker result markets for closing-line value. Tap a card to dig in.
The market-calibrated model fits its expected goals to Singapore Pools' liquid lines, so genuine value only surfaces in the thinner markets it didn't fit.
How bad the worst losing run got, and how long it took to climb out — the betting analogue of a trading drawdown report.
| Market | Bets | Won | Staked | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team to Score 1st Goal | 12 | 1 | $32.60 | +$87.40 | +268.1% | +6.6% |
| Halftime-Fulltime | 85 | 10 | $192.30 | +$67.95 | +35.3% | -2.2% |
| Pick The Score | 54 | 3 | $135.60 | +$11.10 | +8.2% | +8.3% |
| Half Time Team To Score 1st Goal | 10 | 2 | $31.70 | +$3.01 | +9.5% | +4.6% |
| Asian Handicap | 10 | 6 | $121.00 | -$8.54 | -7.1% | +5.2% |
| Halftime PTS | 20 | 2 | $58.60 | -$17.64 | -30.1% | +7.6% |
| Half Time Asian Handicap | 11 | 4 | $99.60 | -$17.97 | -18.0% | +1.2% |
| Halftime Total Goals | 6 | 1 | $42.80 | -$25.98 | -60.7% | +2.5% |
| Total Goals | 21 | 1 | $71.40 | -$36.90 | -51.7% | -1.6% |
| 1/2 Goal | 28 | 13 | $480.10 | -$37.67 | -7.8% | +1.5% |
| Half Time 1/2 Goal | 5 | 2 | $175.90 | -$46.28 | -26.3% | -12.1% |
| Total Goals Odd/Even | 2 | 0 | $50.80 | -$50.80 | -100.0% | +2.4% |
| Total | 264 | 45 | $1492.40 | -$72.32 | -4.8% | +2.3% |
| Status | Selection | Odds | CLV | Stake | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lost | South Africa - South Africa Halftime-Fulltime | 19.00 | -9.5% | $1.00 | -$1.00 |
| lost | South Africa 1-0 Pick The Score | 23.00 | +9.5% | $1.00 | -$1.00 |
