We de-vig Singapore Pools' liquid markets, fit a Poisson goals model, then price every market. A signal is a selection where SG Pools' odds imply a lower probability than the model — a positive expected-value edge, sized with quarter-Kelly. Two models run side by side: the Value model (calibrated to the line, so its edges live in thinner markets) and the market-blind Elo model (contrarian, lower-confidence). They are estimates, not advice.
| Conf | Model | Market | Selection | Book | Fair | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●●○ | Value | Total Goals | 4 Goals | 10.00 | 7.33 | +5.3% | +36.3% | 1.0% |
| ●●● | Value | Total Goals Odd/Even | Odd | 2.70 | 2.01 | +16.0% | +34.2% | 5.0% |
| ●●○ | Value | Total Goals | 6 Goals | 40.00 | 34.26 | +0.8% | +16.8% | 0.1% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Odd/Even | Odd | 2.70 | 2.03 | +15.7% | +33.3% | 4.9% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | South Africa +2.5 | 1.55 | 1.24 | +21.8% | +24.8% | 11.3% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 1.59 | +8.1% | +5.1% | 1.9% |
| ●●○ | Value | Total Goals | 6 Goals | 35.00 | 28.22 | +1.3% | +24.0% | 0.2% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | South Korea -1.5 | 5.20 | 4.30 | +5.8% | +21.0% | 1.3% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 3.25 | 2.98 | +5.3% | +9.2% | 1.0% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Canada -1.5 | 3.15 | 2.63 | +9.2% | +20.0% | 2.3% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Asian Handicap | Canada -0.5 | 1.77 | 1.56 | +11.8% | +13.7% | 4.5% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Canada | 1.77 | 1.56 | +14.4% | +13.7% | 4.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Canada | 2.35 | 2.19 | +7.8% | +7.2% | 1.3% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Asian Handicap | Paraguay +0.5 | 1.85 | 1.39 | +21.6% | +33.0% | 9.7% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Paraguay +1.5 | 1.25 | 1.13 | +16.0% | +11.1% | 11.1% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 2.00 | 1.86 | +8.3% | +7.6% | 1.9% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.97 | +6.9% | +6.3% | 1.4% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Morocco | 5.20 | 3.97 | +8.2% | +31.0% | 1.8% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Morocco +1.5 | 1.43 | 1.27 | +15.4% | +13.0% | 7.5% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime-Fulltime | Haiti - Haiti | 11.00 | 10.03 | +2.6% | +9.7% | 0.2% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime-Fulltime | Draw - Draw | 7.50 | 7.11 | +3.3% | +5.5% | 0.2% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Haiti | 5.20 | 3.60 | +10.8% | +44.4% | 2.6% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Haiti | 5.20 | 4.10 | +7.3% | +26.8% | 1.6% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 4.80 | 3.98 | +6.2% | +20.7% | 1.4% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 1.87 | 1.62 | +12.9% | +15.1% | 4.3% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1.83 | 1.64 | +11.0% | +11.6% | 3.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Asian Handicap | Haiti +0.5 | 1.75 | 1.61 | +8.3% | +8.5% | 2.8% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Haiti +1.5 | 1.48 | 1.38 | +11.3% | +7.5% | 3.9% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Australia | 4.70 | 3.30 | +11.3% | +42.4% | 2.9% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Australia | 5.00 | 3.99 | +7.2% | +25.3% | 1.6% |
| ●●○ | Value | Pick The Score | Draw 0-0 | 30.00 | 20.86 | +2.7% | +43.8% | 0.4% |
| ●●○ | Value | Total Goals | 0 Goals | 30.00 | 20.86 | +2.4% | +43.8% | 0.4% |
| ●●○ | Value | Pick The Score | Germany 2-0 | 8.50 | 6.06 | +9.1% | +40.3% | 1.3% |
| ●●○ | Value | Pick The Score | Draw 1-1 | 25.00 | 19.21 | +2.7% | +30.2% | 0.3% |
| ●●○ | Value | Pick The Score | Germany 2-1 | 19.00 | 14.64 | +3.5% | +29.8% | 0.4% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime PTS | Draw 0-0 | 4.80 | 3.92 | +10.6% | +22.3% | 1.5% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime-Fulltime | Draw - Draw | 15.00 | 12.48 | +3.0% | +20.2% | 0.4% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime PTS | Curaçao 1-0 | 25.00 | 21.07 | +1.9% | +18.7% | 0.2% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 2.85 | 1.96 | +19.6% | +45.2% | 6.1% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Draw | 9.00 | 6.42 | +5.7% | +40.3% | 1.3% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 6.70 | 4.84 | +7.3% | +38.4% | 1.7% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Draw | 4.10 | 3.07 | +11.2% | +33.7% | 2.7% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Japan | 3.40 | 2.63 | +11.7% | +29.1% | 3.0% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1.87 | 1.63 | +12.4% | +15.0% | 4.3% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Japan | 3.70 | 3.23 | +7.0% | +14.4% | 1.3% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Asian Handicap | Japan +0.5 | 1.80 | 1.63 | +9.5% | +10.7% | 3.3% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 1.67 | 1.58 | +8.8% | +5.7% | 2.1% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Ecuador | 2.30 | 1.76 | +18.6% | +30.9% | 5.9% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Ecuador | 3.10 | 2.64 | +9.0% | +17.3% | 2.1% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | No | 1.53 | 1.41 | +11.4% | +8.5% | 4.0% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 5.50 | 3.89 | +9.2% | +41.5% | 2.3% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Tunisia | 4.00 | 2.84 | +12.9% | +40.6% | 3.4% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Tunisia | 4.50 | 3.44 | +9.3% | +30.9% | 2.2% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.64 | +17.3% | +28.0% | 6.4% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 1.90 | 1.59 | +14.8% | +19.3% | 5.4% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Asian Handicap | Tunisia +0.5 | 1.92 | 1.70 | +10.1% | +12.8% | 3.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime Total Goals Over/Under 0.5 | Over 0.5 | 1.42 | 1.32 | +11.1% | +7.6% | 4.5% |
| ●●○ | Value | Pick The Score | Cape Verde 1-0 | 60.00 | 44.54 | +1.2% | +34.7% | 0.1% |
| ●●○ | Value | Total Goals | 1 Goals | 8.50 | 6.92 | +6.0% | +22.8% | 0.8% |
| ●●○ | Value | 1/2 Goal | Cape Verde +2.5 | 1.90 | 1.62 | +14.9% | +17.6% | 4.9% |
| ●●○ | Value | Pick The Score | Spain 1-0 | 9.50 | 8.20 | +5.5% | +15.9% | 0.5% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | No | 1.37 | 1.25 | +14.5% | +9.3% | 6.3% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime-Fulltime | Egypt - Egypt | 9.50 | 9.08 | +2.5% | +4.6% | 0.1% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Egypt | 4.80 | 4.41 | +4.2% | +8.8% | 0.6% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 5.20 | 4.81 | +3.3% | +8.1% | 0.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Egypt | 5.20 | 4.92 | +3.2% | +5.7% | 0.3% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1.72 | 1.45 | +15.6% | +18.7% | 6.5% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | No | 1.58 | 1.34 | +16.9% | +17.7% | 7.6% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime Total Goals Over/Under 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 2.65 | 2.40 | +7.0% | +10.2% | 1.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 5.50 | 4.40 | +6.2% | +24.9% | 1.4% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.73 | +15.0% | +24.0% | 5.2% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 2.10 | 1.74 | +14.1% | +20.4% | 4.6% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Iran -1.5 | 3.50 | 3.20 | +5.2% | +9.3% | 0.9% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime Total Goals Over/Under 0.5 | Over 0.5 | 1.47 | 1.35 | +11.6% | +8.9% | 4.7% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Senegal | 6.50 | 4.80 | +7.1% | +35.4% | 1.6% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 2.05 | 1.65 | +16.4% | +24.3% | 5.8% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1.87 | 1.60 | +13.5% | +16.9% | 4.9% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 4.40 | 4.01 | +4.2% | +9.8% | 0.7% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime Total Goals Over/Under 1.5 | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 2.35 | +5.9% | +6.4% | 1.1% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime-Fulltime | Iraq - Iraq | 30.00 | 22.76 | +1.7% | +31.8% | 0.3% |
| ●●○ | Value | Pick The Score | Iraq 1-0 | 35.00 | 32.74 | +1.2% | +6.9% | 0.1% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime PTS | Iraq 1-0 | 15.00 | 14.41 | +1.8% | +4.1% | 0.1% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Iraq +1.5 | 2.20 | 1.68 | +18.3% | +31.1% | 6.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 6.00 | 5.02 | +4.8% | +19.4% | 1.0% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 2.25 | 1.95 | +10.9% | +15.5% | 3.1% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Draw | 5.20 | 4.95 | +3.0% | +5.0% | 0.3% |
| ●●○ | Value | Halftime-Fulltime | Jordan - Jordan | 15.00 | 13.40 | +2.4% | +11.9% | 0.2% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Jordan +1.5 | 1.75 | 1.41 | +20.1% | +24.3% | 8.1% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 4.90 | 4.33 | +4.9% | +13.2% | 0.9% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 1.88 | 1.72 | +10.7% | +9.4% | 2.7% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | DR Congo | 9.00 | 7.55 | +3.4% | +19.3% | 0.6% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | DR Congo | 9.00 | 7.69 | +3.1% | +17.1% | 0.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Half Time Asian Handicap | DR Congo +0.5 | 2.15 | 1.91 | +8.5% | +12.3% | 2.7% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | DR Congo +1.5 | 1.87 | 1.70 | +10.2% | +10.1% | 2.9% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Croatia | 4.70 | 3.97 | +6.2% | +18.5% | 1.3% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Will Both Teams Score | Yes | 2.00 | 1.76 | +11.5% | +13.9% | 3.5% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.03 | 1.79 | +10.8% | +13.6% | 3.3% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Croatia | 5.00 | 4.50 | +4.5% | +11.1% | 0.7% |
| ●●○ | Elo | Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.93 | +9.2% | +11.5% | 2.5% |
| ●○○ | Elo | 1/2 Goal | Panama +1.5 | 1.15 | 1.06 | +15.2% | +8.7% | 14.5% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | Uzbekistan | 8.00 | 6.42 | +4.5% | +24.6% | 0.9% |
| ●○○ | Elo | Halftime 1X2 | Uzbekistan | 7.50 | 6.78 | +3.1% | +10.7% | 0.4% |
| ●●○ | Elo | 1X2 | South Africa | 4.40 | 4.12 | +4.1% | +6.8% | 0.5% |
